$13 Billion Defence Deals Expected to Boost Pakistan’s Economy, Report Says

Pakistan’s defence export pipeline is expected to emerge as a major economic growth driver between 2026 and 2030, with confirmed and potential defence deals already reaching double-digit billions of dollars, according to a report by KASB Securities. The report notes that following the success of Operation Bunyan e Marsous, Pakistan’s diplomatic standing has improved significantly, translating into stronger geostrategic defence engagements and export-led defence agreements.

According to the assessment, defence deals currently tracked are valued at around $13 billion, a scale that could meaningfully strengthen Pakistan’s external economic position. If these orders are realised, foreign exchange reserves could rise by as much as 82 percent and provide strong support to the country’s $60 billion export target under the Uraan Pakistan initiative by 2029. The report also highlights additional upside potential as negotiations and deal structures continue to evolve, supported by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif’s remarks that Pakistan’s aircraft have been tested and are attracting strong international demand.

Pakistan’s defence exports cover a wide range of products, including fighter aircraft, naval vessels, armoured vehicles, unmanned systems, and precision-guided munitions, with key markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Among these, the JF-17 Thunder, a 4.5-generation fighter jet, is drawing the strongest interest. Countries such as Iran, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Algeria, Ethiopia, Argentina, and Uzbekistan have expressed interest in the aircraft over time.

The report identifies Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Pakistan Ordnance Factories, Heavy Industries Taxila, and Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works as the main institutions expected to execute these defence exports. Current international operators of the JF-17 include Myanmar, Nigeria, and Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijan unveiling a major $1.6 billion defence deal during late 2024 and 2025.

Active negotiations during 2025 and 2026 include discussions with Saudi Arabia to convert financial support into a potential JF-17 fighter jet deal valued at around $6 billion. Libya is negotiating a broader defence package covering fighter jets, training aircraft, tanks, naval vessels, and other equipment estimated at approximately $4 billion. Azerbaijan is in talks for additional JF-17 Block III aircraft along with training and logistics worth about $1.6 billion, while Sudan is discussing a defence package involving weapons, aircraft, drones, and air defence systems valued near $1.5 billion. Bangladesh has also been identified as a potential buyer of JF-17 and Super Mushshak aircraft.

The report further highlights the deepening of Pakistan-Saudi defence cooperation following the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed in September 2025. This agreement formalised decades of cooperation into a binding security framework covering intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, defence production, capacity building, and technology transfer. It has enhanced Pakistan’s strategic leverage, opened pathways for Saudi investment, and positioned the country more firmly within Gulf and Middle Eastern security dynamics. Turkey has expressed interest in joining as a third partner, while Jordan has shown intent to expand military cooperation after high-level engagements in late 2025.

According to KASB Securities, if current defence export projections materialise, defence exports could account for around 3.7 percent of Pakistan’s GDP, signalling a major structural shift toward high-value manufacturing and strategic industries. The report concludes that defence exports present a rare convergence of foreign policy, industrial capability, and macroeconomic opportunity, with successful execution and geopolitical stability remaining the key factors shaping outcomes in the coming years.