Urea Sales Set to Drop to 6-Year Low Following Record December Performance

Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to hit a 75-month low in January 2026, as advance buying in December 2025, reduced manufacturer discounts, and tapering seasonal demand caused a sharp slowdown in offtake, according to Topline Securities research. Urea sales are projected at 218,000 tons, down 84 percent month-on-month and 51 percent year-on-year, following record December purchases of 1.36 million tons driven by heavy discounts.

Discounts in January fell sharply, with Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) offering Rs. 100-150 per bag compared to Rs. 400 in December, while Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) did not offer any discounts after providing Rs. 150-200 per bag previously. Despite weaker demand, steady production has led to a buildup in inventory, with closing urea stocks expected at 0.63 million tons versus 0.32 million tons in December. Fatima Group (FATIMA) holds 220,000 tons, EFERT 264,000 tons, and FFC 90,000 tons.

Company-wise, EFERT’s urea sales are projected to drop 96 percent MoM and 77 percent YoY to 24,000 tons, FFC’s sales to 175,000 tons down 54 percent MoM and 10 percent YoY, and FATIMA to 7,000 tons down 97 percent MoM and 93 percent YoY. Total DAP sales are also expected to decline to roughly 34,000 tons, down 58 percent MoM and 45 percent YoY, with FFC and EFERT estimated at 20,000 and 11,000 tons respectively, and closing DAP inventory projected at 275,000 tons.