Oil Prices Drift Ahead of US‑Iran Nuclear Talks as Traders Brace for Geopolitical Impact

Oil prices held steady on Monday as traders awaited renewed talks between the United States and Iran, with geopolitical tensions providing support to crude while OPEC+ signals a possible resumption of output increases from April. Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 3 cents to $67.72 a barrel, following a 23-cent gain on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3 cents to $62.86 per barrel. WTI settlement was not available due to a US holiday.

Last week, both benchmarks posted weekly declines, with Brent down about 0.5% and WTI falling 1%, after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested a potential deal with Iran in the coming month. The renewed negotiations, aimed at resolving Iran’s nuclear program dispute and avoiding military confrontation, are set to continue in Geneva on Tuesday. An Iranian diplomat indicated that the talks could include economic benefits such as energy and mining investments, as well as aircraft purchases.

Market analysts remain cautious, noting that both sides are expected to adhere to core red lines, limiting the likelihood of an immediate agreement. The US has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region, preparing for possible military escalation, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation against any US strikes.

OPEC+ is reportedly considering resuming output hikes from April after a three-month pause to meet anticipated summer demand, providing additional market context. Analysts observed that without the geopolitical premium, crude prices, particularly WTI, could be trading below $60. Activity in global financial markets is expected to remain muted, with major Asian markets such as China, South Korea, and Taiwan closed for holidays.