Explained: La Niña to Bring One of Pakistan’s Coldest Winters in Decades

Pakistan is preparing for one of its coldest winters in decades due to the return of La Niña, a global climate phenomenon that typically leads to below-normal temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns. According to a report by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) with UN-OCHA, the colder conditions could significantly worsen humanitarian challenges in areas still recovering from historic monsoon floods, particularly in northern regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Gilgit Baltistan (GB), and parts of Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

La Niña, which develops when Pacific Ocean surface temperatures fall below average, alters atmospheric circulation and disrupts global weather. In Pakistan, this pattern could result in extreme winter cold and a shift in rainfall distribution. The ISCG forecast indicates that northern areas may receive below-average precipitation, while southern regions such as Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are expected to experience near-normal rainfall. These changes are also influenced by weak phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole.

The combined impact of unusually cold temperatures and post-flood conditions could lead to a range of complications. The harvesting of Kharif crops may be disrupted by isolated storms, while stagnant water from floods increases the risk of disease outbreaks such as dengue and malaria. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may become more likely in mountainous regions, while reduced river flows could hinder irrigation and crop production. Air quality in urban centers may also worsen due to higher smog levels.

Ongoing food insecurity remains a major concern. A spatial analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) revealed that 1.2 million hectares of farmland in Punjab were flooded, destroying key crops like cotton, rice, and sugarcane. The disaster also damaged farming equipment, livestock, and fodder stocks, impacting both short-term survival and long-term recovery.

Health conditions in flood-affected areas continue to deteriorate. Over 229,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, leaving many without shelter. Poor sanitation and stagnant water increase the risk of diseases such as cholera, typhoid, and diarrhoea. Schools and health services remain inaccessible for many, worsening the effects of displacement and limited food access.

While the current La Niña event is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, meteorologists say it will likely persist into early 2026. This is the fifth La Niña in six years, further complicating recovery efforts. The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirms that La Niña conditions began in September 2025 and are expected to continue through February 2026.

Pakistan’s climate challenges are closely linked to ENSO—a system that includes La Niña, El Niño, and a neutral phase. La Niña is known to increase rainfall and lower temperatures in parts of Asia, but in Pakistan, it typically contributes to colder winters and shifts in precipitation patterns that affect agriculture, health, and infrastructure.

With diminishing resources and exhausted emergency funds, both government agencies and humanitarian organizations are struggling to respond to the looming crisis. The outlook suggests that without scaled-up support and targeted intervention, communities already affected by floods may face a harsh and potentially life-threatening winter.