Reko Diq Copper-Gold Production May Slip to 2030 as Investors Await Improved Security

Production at Pakistan's Reko Diq copper-gold project may be pushed back by two years to 2030, according to a report by Dawn, as investors weigh security conditions in Balochistan and regional tensions before committing to a full construction schedule. The project had originally been targeted for first production in 2028.

Canadian mining firm Barrick Mining, which holds a 50 percent stake in the venture, is expected to resume full-scale development by mid-2027 following the completion of an internal review, although the company has not yet issued a formal announcement. Barrick launched a formal review in February 2026 and extended its assessment period into early 2027. Speaking at the Mining Forum Americas last month, the company's chief executive did not offer a revised construction timeline, stating that security improvements were needed first.

Despite the slowdown, the project has retained all 700 permanent employees and roughly 2,000 contractual workers at the site, while allowing some third-party service contracts to expire. Research, administrative work and community development initiatives are said to be continuing on schedule. Nearly $1 billion has been invested in the venture to date, and the project is assessed as technically viable and remains a strategic priority for both the operator and the government.

Estimates of the financial impact of a delay vary widely. One assessment places cost escalation at $8 billion to $10 billion if work resumes within a year, warning that further security deterioration or a delay beyond two years could make the project prohibitively expensive. An alternative estimate puts the cost increase at roughly 10 percent, or about $450 million to $900 million, noting that sentiment around the project has improved in recent weeks. A proposal has also been floated for a consortium of local companies to acquire a minority stake.

The ownership structure divides the project evenly: Barrick holds 50 percent, while the remaining half is split equally between the Balochistan provincial government and three state-owned entities — Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company and Government Holdings Private Limited. Barrick Chairman John L. Thornton is scheduled to visit Pakistan later this month to attend the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad.

Reko Diq is among Pakistan's most ambitious infrastructure undertakings. Estimated Phase 1 investment has risen from $4 billion to $5.6 billion, with Phase 2 projected to require another $3.5 billion, bringing total capital expenditure to around $9.1 billion against earlier estimates of roughly $7 billion. Designed as a conventional open-pit mining and processing operation, the project is set to produce high-grade copper-gold concentrate at an initial capacity of 45 million tonnes of ore annually, expected to double to 90 million tonnes after Phase 2. Concerns have also been raised that only 30 to 35 percent of output may be processed domestically, with the remainder shipped to the operator's Australian facility, potentially limiting local value addition.