Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast to $105 by December, Pakistan Braces for Impact
Goldman Sachs has increased its Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel for December, up from $90, citing heightened supply risks. Other banks like ANZ and UBS also foresee higher prices, which could pressure Pakistan's fuel prices and economy.
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil, now expecting it to average $105 per barrel in December, up from its earlier estimate of $90. That represents a nearly 17 percent increase. The bank's analysts cited growing risks to oil supply, according to Bloomberg. Goldman also lifted its 2027 forecast to an average of $88 per barrel, from $80 previously.
Other financial institutions are echoing this bullish outlook. ANZ raised its Brent forecast by 10 percent last week and now expects oil to end 2026 at $105 per barrel. UBS projects $110 by the end of the year. ANZ analysts noted that eight months of adapting to disrupted Middle Eastern supply have materially weakened the buffers that absorbed the initial shock.
The higher forecasts come even though oil flows from the Persian Gulf have reportedly returned to pre-war levels. Goldman had warned in September that oil could hit $120 again. Analysts concur that only a peace deal between Iran and the United States can push prices down sustainably. "For the risk premium to come off quickly, you would probably need to see a diplomatic solution that market participants see as sustainable," said Goldman's Daan Struyven. However, the chances of such a deal by year-end appear slim, despite recent talks between Iranian and Qatari officials.
For Pakistan, which imports most of its oil, a $105 Brent would maintain upward pressure on petrol and diesel prices. The government recently reduced the petrol levy to keep pump prices unchanged, but costlier crude would make that harder to sustain. Higher fuel costs could also strain the country's trade deficit and inflation, adding to economic challenges.
The revised forecasts underscore the volatility in global oil markets and the potential impact on oil-importing nations like Pakistan. With geopolitical tensions persisting and supply risks elevated, consumers and businesses may need to prepare for higher energy costs in the coming months.
