S&P Global Market Intelligence has projected easing inflation, gradual economic growth, and a manageable current account for Pakistan, broadly aligning with the State Bank of Pakistan’s outlook, according to Adviser to the Finance Minister Khurram Schehzad. S&P forecasts inflation at 5.1 percent in 2026, rising slightly to 5.6 percent in 2027, which falls within the SBP’s expected range of 5 to 7 percent, indicating stable to mildly higher inflation over the next two years.
On the external front, Pakistan’s current account deficit is projected at 0.5 percent of GDP in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027. The 2026 projection aligns with SBP guidance that the deficit will remain within 0 to 1 percent of GDP, while the 2027 estimate is slightly above the SBP range but reflects medium-term expectations.
S&P expects real GDP growth of 3.5 percent in FY26, rising to 4.4 percent in FY27 as economic activity strengthens. The SBP has projected growth between 3.75 and 4.75 percent for FY26. While S&P’s FY26 forecast is slightly below the SBP’s lower bound, its FY27 projection falls within the SBP’s FY26 range, suggesting convergence on medium-term growth trends.
Khurram Schehzad noted that the forecasts reflect a shared assessment of easing inflationary pressures, improving economic fundamentals, and a stabilizing external account. The alignment supports the government’s view that macroeconomic stabilization measures are taking effect, although risks remain and sustained policy discipline is required to maintain the recovery amid ongoing fiscal and external challenges.
